Gordian Knot

Comparison of Global Pandemics in the Last 100 Years

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Except for COVID-19, all global pandemics in the last century were caused by influenza viruses. Picture by Shutterstock

As part of my work for NYU’s School of Global Public Health, I have been compiling and comparing key metrics for the most severe global pandemics that occurred in the past 100 years.

I am comparing COVID-19 metrics to seasonal influenza, 1918 Spanish flu, 1957 Asian flu, 1968 Hong Kong flu, and 2009-10 H1N1. There are many similarities and differences that can be observed. Aside from the astonishing speed of vaccine development to combat COVID-19, there are three interesting findings.

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The Climate Connection

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Climate change increases the risk of new epidemics. Picture by Shutterstock/ diy13

I originally created this blog as a way to spread awareness of the importance of public health preparedness, as it was an undervalued and underfunded topic. However, times have changed and public health and emergency management are at the forefront of news and public policy today as a result of COVID-19.

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Interesting Read on the First Documented Coronavirus Reinfection

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COVID-19 reinfections are now documented in several countries.  Picture by Shutterstock/ Lightspring

The first documented Coronavirus reinfection was reported in Hong Kong on August 24th, 2020. Experts say this finding was not unexpected, “especially given the millions of people who have been infected worldwide”. While there have been many presumed cases of reinfection, this case was the first to be confirmed.

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The Race to a Vaccine

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Scientists in a high security lab. Picture by Shutterstock

While social distancing is the best way to slow the spread of Coronavirus and flatten the curve of infections to make sure that hospitals are not overwhelmed, to return to full normalcy, we need to discover, test, and administer a vaccine in large quantities. The good news is that there are currently 35 companies racing to create a vaccine and at least 52 vaccine programs underway.

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Do Your Own COVID-19 Simulation

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Stop the spread! Picture by Shutterstock/ Fotomay

Check out this COVID-19 simulation tool. It allows you to change several different variables both individually and together. You can test how duration, interventions, severity, and contagiousness all affect the trajectory of this fast-spreading virus.

http://covidsim.eu

Setting Priorities: Coronavirus Preparedness in the US

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How can the coronavirus outbreak be mitigated? Picture by Shutterstock

The US seems behind in its efforts to contain the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic. Learnings from other countries, in particular Italy and Germany, indicate that infections have already spread widely in communities and can no longer be traced and controlled. These countries are ahead of the curve and there is no reason to believe that developments in the US will not follow this same path. Continue Reading

The Difficulty of Predicting the Coronavirus Trajectory

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How fast will the new coronavirus spread? Biostatisticians are trying to predict its pattern. Picture by Shutterstock.

There is currently a debate about the trajectory of the new coronavirus disease, now named COVID-19. Different models are predicting different outcomes and numbers provided by Chinese authorities seem to indicate a steep increase in cases. Continue Reading

Interesting Read on the Challenges of a Centralized System when Combatting an Epidemic

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Centralized or decentralized – which government system is more efficient at outbreak control? Picture by Shutterstock

While the numbers of infections and deaths from the novel coronavirus are accelerating and the peak of the crisis is projected to still be a few weeks away (1), the question of whether China’s centralized governmental system has been helping or hurting outbreak control remains. Continue Reading

WHO Declares Global Health Emergency

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WHO declares Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Picture by Shutterstock

The continuous spread of the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) led the World Health Organization to declare a global health emergency today. WHO director Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated that the main reason for the declaration “is not what is happening in China but what is happening in other countries”. Ghebreyesus made sure to praise the measures and the ways in which Chinese authorities are controlling this outbreak. Continue Reading